Bitcoin nipping at gold demand
For
centuries, gold has held a unique role: as a form of currency, a store
of value and sometimes a speculative or alternative asset to stocks and
bonds. No other asset has managed to retain such an allure over time.
And
over the centuries, there have been other pretenders for gold's throne
(salt, florins or ducats, anyone?) but none has survived. The latest
potential competitor for gold may be bitcoin, the cryptocurrency created
in 2009 as open-source software for a decentralized form of payment.
Last
year, when bitcoin prices rose from their 2017 starting value of just
under $1,000 to over $19,000 by mid-December, market chatter was that
bitcoin was usurping gold's role as a store of value and alternative to
fiat currencies. After all, bitcoin's price was skyrocketing, while gold
was languishing, staying mostly in the $1,200 an ounce range, despite
rising geopolitical worries.
That
price charts showed a near-inverse relationship between the two —
especially starting in the fall — likely added to the speculation that
bitcoin was sapping demand from the yellow metal.
The
fever surrounding bitcoin has died down — that happens when the price
of an asset falls by more than half in a short time period. But
questions remain: Is bitcoin a competitor to gold? And what's the
outlook for the precious metal?
Some say maybe
Pete
Thomas, senior vice president of Zaner Precious Metals, a physical
markets broker, said during last year's bitcoin price run-up, some of
his regular customers who buy gold coins or bars on a monthly basis told
him they were opting to buy bitcoin at the time instead. He also heard
anecdotally from other precious metals coin brokers that they were
seeing bitcoin syphoning demand from gold.
He said one of his firm's long-time clients, a major global coin dealer, told Thomas he saw demand shifting.
"He
told us that 20 percent of his business was now crypto," Thomas said.
"People were going to a gold broker and swapping crypto out or swapping
gold to buy crypto with him. He's a real numbers guy and really
reliable."
Will Rhind, founder and chief executive officer of GraniteShares, issuer of the GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR),
a physical gold ETF, said when bitcoin prices were higher, it may have
reduced marginal demand for gold, but he doesn't believe that bitcoin is
a "zero-sum game" for gold.
"Certainly
there are people who invest or buy both of them, but there's not a big
market share differential between the two," he noted.
April 21, 2018 by Debbie Carlson
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